On May 20, theEpic Games Storerevealed its elusive mystery free game for this week. Epic was keeping a tight lid on the free release ofNBA 2K21, a basketball game that launched to middling reception. While this title sat in mystery for a whole week, most games that become free on the Epic Store are advertised in advance. For the free title on May 27, however, Epic is still keeping it under wraps. In fact, normally Epic puts out an exciting mix of gorgeous indie titles and some more mainstream classics. However, when it comes to these mystery titles, the store is often much more generous. BeforeNBA 2K21, Epic’s last free mystery game was the iconicGrand Theft Auto 5.
So, what game could be next? The answer is really hard to predict, but there are a few possible options from the vast expanse of titles on theEpic Games Store. It could be another premium sports game, likeFootball Manager 2021orTony Hawk’s Pro Skater 1+2,or take a wild swerve to a game likeDeath StrandingorRed Dead Online.Another, perhaps more interesting question, is why is the Epic Games Store using mystery games as an incentive? How does this strategy play into its wider plans for PC market domination? While the first question is difficult to precisely determine, market psychology can be used to answer the second question.
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Why Does The Epic Games Store Give Away Mystery Games?
Free games, microtransaction bundles, extensive discount options, and Christmas giveaways: the Epic Store does not skimp on its free offerings. In fact, according to Tim Sweeney, the store has given away over749 million copies of free softwaresince its opening in December 2018. With evidence that the Epic Games Store is losing a lot of money being revealed in its recent court case with Apple, many have wondered if these free games are worth it. If the store’s aim was to make lots of money immediately, it was an obvious failure.
Of course, aims of companies like Epic are never quite that simple. The aim of the storefront is not to get a quick buck in the PC gaming marketplace. Rather, the store aims at eventually challenging the market dominance of Steam, and to do that a larger userbase is needed. Free games are a good start. However, getting to such heights does not only require audience building. Companies like Epic also need a solid plan for customer retention and engagement. So, just releasing free games gets some players on board, but the prospect of a “mystery game” is much more exciting than a regular announcement.
The Psychology Behind Epic’s Mystery Games
The psychology behind subscription services like LootCrate or Humble Bundle go some way in demonstrating the power of the mystery game. A central factor is “reward uncertainty.” This uncertainty is a principle of gambling psychology. According to gambling psychologist Dr. Charles Livingstone, having variable rewards encourages consumers (and gambling addicts) to spend their money (or time, in the case of the Epic Store) on a particular product.
So, by varying up how it delivers free games using reward uncertainty, Epic can keep its customers hooked on what it might release next (in a much less dangerous manner than casinos). It is obviously a strategy that works, as the free release of the “mysterious"Grand Theft Auto 5was so popular that Epic’s storefront crashed.
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What Could Be The Next Mystery Game on Epic’s Store?
Obviously, the psychology of reward uncertainty only works if the product stays secret. So, the exact game that Epic plans on putting out on the 27th is uncertain. However, there are definitely some games that are more likely than others. If the store continues in the vein of its free sports games, eitherFootball Manager 2021or someRocket Leaguewould not be surprising. The store has released microtransaction packs before, but the language of “mystery game” would imply a full title is coming.
If Epic are interested in player retention, a game likeRed Dead Redemption2orRed DeadOnlinewould certainly be a possible giveaway. The game is constantly on sale on the store, and Rockstar’s brand of cowboy simulator is certainly popular. It also boasts an impressive array of aesthetic microtransactions, which gives the store a monetary incentive for making it free. Persistent games likeRed Dead Onlineare important for the Epic Store. These titles boost the number of players returning to its platform (and would also be great for fans of free cowboy capers).
Alternatively, upcoming titles for the Epic Store would make good free additions to the store. BothRuined King: A League of Legends StoryandYakuza Empireare interesting titles featured in the “Coming Soon” section of the store’s front page. While it might seem unusual to make a totally new game free, Epic has done it before with titles like3 Out of 10: Season 2. Doing so would certainly bring in someLeague of Legendsfans, and onboard an entirely new set of potential customers.
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